Friday, October 06, 2006

11:07 mile. So what?

Someone on the Runners World forums asked me today what the 11:07 mile time trial means to my training. I really have no idea.

I couldn't help but plug the mile time into McMillan's running calculator at work today to see what came out. Here are some interesting predictions based on the 11:07 mile.

Equivalent performance:
5K - 38:31
10K - 1:20:00
10 mile - 2:14:03
Half marathon - 2:58:01
Marathon - 6:15:26

(Do keep in mind that a 5K runner is unlikely to run the equivalent time in the marathon off of 5K training. The runner would obviously need to train for the marathon to accomplish this equivalent time.)

I know I'm overanalyzing but I can't help but know that weather would play a HUGE part in these predictions. Since my 11:07 mile trial was executed in 90 degree temps, it may be safe to say that these times would be even better given better conditions. Still, I think for the conditions that I ran in, I was about as on my game as I could have been for that run. Good nutrition. Good sleep. Good hydration. New shoes. Squishy running track. Definitely optimal conditions except for the temperature.

I think that the training paces that McMillan provides are valuable and I am going to start using them to program my Garmin. Here is a sample of the training paces McMillan suggests:

Long runs - (14:51-15:51) (this happens to be the pace that I do my long runs at)
Tempo runs - (13:02 - 13:36)
Recovery jog - (15:51 - 16:21)
100m intervals - (35.7 - 39.3)
400m intervals - (2:37.2 - 2:49.1)
and so on...

Anyway, I'm don't want to go to being too scientific or rigid as I am enjoying just running and trying to feel it, but I think it's good to learn these paces and how they feel and what various workouts feel like.

So, for the 10-miler, I think this gives me a good idea of what I MAY expect from my performance. I was leaning more toward slogging in at 2:30 as a goal but McMillan predicts a 2:14:03. Runner's World predicts a 2:07:38. Yeah, right!!! Running Times calculator predicts 2:11:46. I think I'll be happy with anything between 2:14:00 and 2:25:00. That's 13:24 - 14:30 pace, certainly faster than any training run to date at that distance.

Well, this is of course just rambling. I have a lot to learn and very little race experience. I am just looking forward to running, racing, losing more weight, and continuting to have a blast!!!


Bill D said...

What it means is that it's a very good time and that very good things will be happening in your future.

A one mile time trial is not far enough to predict performances for other distances. You need at least two miles. A 5K is better.

Have a great weekend.

Anonymous said...

Just to add to Bill's observations, the one miler suggests that native foot speed is not an issue to achieving a 6 hour marathon, so that's a very good thing. Next weekend's 10 miler will hopefully give you your first really good data point. However, conditions for that race have been stinking miserable the last few years, so if they're again poor it's on to the half marathon (or the next distance race with good conditions) for a strong indicator of your marathon fitness.

Even if conditions are good I wouldn't get too hung up on pace for the 10 miler. Just go out at your "go forever" pace and maintain it.


Pony said...

Congrats on your fantastic mile time!!! That's AWESOME!!!

For me, those prediction calculators are a good thing... they help me to believe that I CAN DO IT...I can run as fast as they suggest I can. And that makes a mental difference in my training that translates to a physical distance.

So go out and try their training paces knowing that with decent conditions, you ARE capable!

Jenny said...

These calculators are great! I've built some into my running log spreadsheet now so I can figure out my marathon finish time after every day's run! LOL! Total overkill I know but it's fun. It will be very interesting to hear how you get on with those guideline training paces.

Barbara said...

I like using the half marathon predictor I have built into my spreadsheet. Although it's based on what my fastest possible time would be, I like the positive spin on it.